RUSSELL: PUTTING HEAT ON MURTHA

As I indicated previously, I'm shifting all my "main" blogging activity to the following: http://stevemaloneygop.blogspost.com. My primary emphasis from now until Election Day, 2008, will be on the challenges offered by Democrats to Republicans. I'll be moving this column over to the new site, and soon SmartPolitics101 will be strutting its stuff at SteveMaloneyGOP.

I'll always stay away from the staple of most blogs, political "tidbits" largely culled from the MSM (mainstream media, for my Australian visitors, of whom I have many). I want to discuss practical steps that good GOP candidates can use to defeat less-good (and sometimes, awful) opponents. In short, I'll stay away from "tidbit journalism."

A generation ago, a political science professor, Seymour Scher at the University of Rochester, told us that "politics is the art of influencing public decisions." That's a good definition, and it covers everything from electing good candidates to having a positive effect on laws and regulations. Remember, a lot of apparently "social" activities have a strong political component.

By the way, don't ask me how I feel about this group or that group (e.g., Blacks, Hispnaics, older veterans, union members, young people, women professionals, and the like). I want their votes, and if you're a candidate interesting in operating "of, by, and for the people," you should also. The ideal is to get majority support from all groups.

On my other blogs -- this one and that one, as we'll affectionately call them -- I focus often on how to take votes away from "the other guy" (or "other gal") as well as how to find new votes.

In a district like the Pennsylvania 12th (now held by the odious John Murtha) registration (in either party) is low -- and so is voter turnout. Many of these non-voters are people who've given up hope on every influencing elections and public policy. For example, they're so used to John Murtha running unopposed that they're surprised on occasions when he does have a strong competitor.

There are tens of thousands of people in the 12th District who could (and I'd say, should) vote but don't. If he can figure out how to get a lot of these people registered, Lt. Col. William Russell -- Murtha's Republican challenger -- should get the lion's share of their votes.

At the same time, Russell has to accomplish something more difficult. He needs to tear away -- on analogy with ripping the bark off trees -- voters who have cast ballots for Murtha in the past. In short, Russell has to convince them that he's far the better choice. Doing so will mean convincing people -- tens of thousands -- that Murtha is not the man they've believed him to be.

The fact that Murtha's old (i.e., older than me) isn't by itself an argument against him. However, the fact that he makes daffy statements about the Iraq War and our soldiers is a sign that he's not aging well. His recent statement that "The surge is working," combined with statements the next day that it's not, calls into serious question the man's judgment.

His political "romance" with Nancy Pelosi is a problem for Murtha. If he believes a far-left social radical like the Speaker is an appropriate leader for his Party, then what type of leadership is he offering to his moderately conservative -- and pro-military -- district? He can't be one of the "Nancy Boys" and still be an effective representative of the 12 District of Pennsylvaia.

The 12th District, supposedly a "lock" for Democrats, is one that's long been tending Republican in national elections. There are a lot of nominal Democrats there, "Reagan Democrats," and a good chunk of them should be winnable by Russell.

If George Bush can win Murtha's Cambria County in 2004, that doesn't necessarily mean Russell can carry it. However, it means he can come a lot closer in Cambria than will make Murtha comfortable. Several other counties, including rapid-growth Washington, in the District should be winnable for Russell.

A majority of the voters in the 12th will cast their votes for Russell IF HE GIVES THEM GOOD REASONS TO DO SO. One good reason is that he's assuredly NOT Jack Murtha.

Also, if Russell can make real inroads in conservative Democratic areas like Uniontown, then this could be a real horserace. Murtha's recent bizarre statements about the War in Iraq show that he's already feeling the heat as the Russell Campaign begins to warm up.

Russell needs to think back to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. He carried some distinctly un-Republican places (at the time) like Massachusetts, New York and Michigan -- not to mention Pennsylvania. Voters may have Party preferences, but few of them qualify as robots.

For Murtha, let me paraphrase some famous words from Harry Truman: If you can't stand the heat, get out of the race. I have a hunch that on Election Day, 2008, The Prince of Pork is going to be sweating profusely.

If Russell can raise $500,000 in this election, he can win. There's evidence that, with the continued support of people like you, he can generate enough cash to get his message across. Murtha is on pace -- take a look at "Murtha" on opensecrets.org -- to raise $4 million. If he continues to demonstrate a constant state of anger and befuddlement, he may not be able to win with $40 million.

Look for him to enter "The Murtha Panic Mode" and start making wild charges against Lt. Col. William Russell and his supporters. He did the same thing against Diana Irey, and "Old Dog" Murtha refuses to learn any new tricks.

If Lt. Col. Russell, an authentic American Warrior, ends up congressman-elect, please don't faint from shock. When and if Russell wins, it might be the most significant victory in the history of the PA Republican Party.

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